Federal Reserve's Leading Indicator Index 2013-05-01 to 2013-05-31

Release Date: 
Tue, 07/02/2013
Coverage Start: 
Wed, 05/01/2013
Coverage End: 
Fri, 05/31/2013

Current: 1.02
Previous: 1.29

Florida’s leading index lost 0.27 percentage points from the previous month in May, and 0.22 points from a year ago. This change leaves the Sunshine State’s index 0.45 points short of that of the U.S. Meanwhile, Florida’s coincident index grew 0.14% from the month prior, and 1.99% from a year ago. This growth was also outpaced by that of the U.S., which increased 0.19% from the previous month and 2.72% from the same month last year. The leading index, which predicts the six-month growth of the coincident index, also takes into account building permits – which grew 0.80% in Florida – initial claims for unemployment insurance – which fell 2.43% from April – supplier delivery times from the Institute for Supply management – which were reported as faster throughout May – and the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills – which expanded by 0.19 percentage points from April in May. The coincident index itself is determined using four state-specific indicators (which are also used in creating the leading indexes): nonfarm payroll employment – which fell 0.08% from April but grew 1.66% from May 2012 – average hours worked in manufacturing – which increased 0.99% from April to 40.9 hours – the unemployment rate – which fell 0.1 percentage points – and wage and salary disbursements – which have only been released for the first quarter of 2013.